{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "contentVersion": "2026-10-15.2",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "source-famine",
      "title": "国立公文書館：天下大変・飢饉",
      "url": "https://www.archives.go.jp/exhibition/digital/tenkataihen/famine/index.html",
      "creator": "国立公文書館",
      "accessedOn": "2026-10-15",
      "supports": "発生の年・地域。個人への被害量・確率・回復期間は示さない。"
    }
  ],
  "records": [
    {
      "id": "kyoho-1732",
      "revision": 1,
      "status": "ready",
      "type": "disaster",
      "title": "享保の飢饉",
      "description": "西日本の凶作・虫害に加え、救援米の輸送が江戸の米価上昇につながったと国立公文書館は説明しています。直接の食料不足と価格負担を分けて再現します。",
      "time": {
        "startYear": 1732,
        "endYear": 1732,
        "calendar": "gregorian",
        "precision": "year",
        "modelTriggerFraction": 0.75
      },
      "area": {
        "kind": "regions",
        "regionIds": [
          "土佐",
          "安芸",
          "出雲",
          "播磨",
          "大和"
        ],
        "excludeRegionIds": [],
        "locationBasis": "residence",
        "coverage": "partial",
        "precision": "old-province",
        "basis": "史料の畿内以西という広域記述を登録地域へ対応した部分的モデル。旧国全域の一律被害を実証しない。"
      },
      "conditions": {},
      "evidence": {
        "kind": "source_fact",
        "sourceIds": [
          "source-famine"
        ],
        "confidence": "B",
        "limitations": "発生と江戸への米価の波及は史料背景。個人確率・年内位置・伝播遅延・旧国一律の効果は仮定。"
      },
      "integration": {
        "adapter": "disaster-v1",
        "profile": "famine",
        "effectKind": "game_design_assumption",
        "artKey": "famine"
      },
      "outsideCoverage": "unknown",
      "impacts": [
        {
          "id": "direct",
          "level": "direct",
          "area": {
            "kind": "regions",
            "regionIds": [
              "土佐",
              "安芸",
              "出雲",
              "播磨",
              "大和"
            ],
            "excludeRegionIds": [],
            "locationBasis": "residence",
            "coverage": "partial",
            "precision": "old-province",
            "basis": "史料の畿内以西という広域記述を登録地域へ対応した部分的モデル。旧国全域の一律被害を実証しない。"
          },
          "conditions": {},
          "profile": "famine",
          "window": {
            "mode": "sustained",
            "durationYears": 1
          },
          "transmission": {
            "kind": "local",
            "originLabel": "発生地域",
            "lagYears": 0,
            "basis": "直接影響としてモデル化。伝播遅延なし。"
          },
          "probability": {
            "value": 0.65,
            "kind": "game_design_assumption",
            "unit": "per-person-per-event-window",
            "basis": "一つのイベント期間につき65%という試作値。実測の被災率ではない。"
          },
          "sourceIds": [
            "source-famine"
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "edo-price",
          "level": "indirect",
          "area": {
            "kind": "regions",
            "regionIds": [
              "武蔵"
            ],
            "excludeRegionIds": [],
            "locationBasis": "residence",
            "coverage": "partial",
            "precision": "old-province",
            "basis": "江戸の米価上昇の記述を武蔵の地域参照へ対応。武蔵全域への実効的波及は未確認の簡略化。"
          },
          "conditions": {},
          "profile": "food-price",
          "window": {
            "mode": "sustained",
            "durationYears": 0.5
          },
          "transmission": {
            "kind": "food-trade",
            "originLabel": "西国の飢饉・救援米の輸送",
            "lagYears": 0.25,
            "basis": "江戸への米価の波及という経路は出典。3か月の遅延は発生日を特定できないためのモデル値。"
          },
          "probability": {
            "value": 0.35,
            "kind": "game_design_assumption",
            "unit": "per-person-per-event-window",
            "basis": "価格負担を経験する個人イベントを35%で抽選する試作値。米価上昇自体の発生確率ではない。"
          },
          "sourceIds": [
            "source-famine"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}